"McCainocrats?": John McCain's cross-aisle appeal
It may not seem like a big deal for most, but given the fact that he's not really liked all that much by a conservative base, John McCain needs help from somewhere, and based on a some new polls, that could come from Democrat ranks:
A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners. In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.
By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.
The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of the Gallup Organization’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” — or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.
The polls were aggregated at Politico’s request as part of an effort to assess the cross-party appeal of each candidate. The compilation created a larger sample size, allowing pollsters to more accurately decipher voting patterns by party affiliation.
McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.
There are plenty of conservatives who have decided they won't vote for him, and they won't vote for the other two. They'll go and vote, but not for the presidency. We can understand that. We're not thrilled with him either, but the way this race is shaping up, like I said above, he needs all the help he can find. The numbers don't lie. Democrats aren't happy, and if supporters are alienated by the choice, they could lose in November. Not because John McCain is the best candidate, which we believe he is, but rather because they won't like who is chosen.
Obama's supporters don't like Hillary. Hillary supporters don't like Obama. To them, it doesn't matter who is chosen because one or the other will cause some of the Democrat base to stay home OR they'll choose to vote for McCain. Now yesterday I speculated that could help him. Today we learn that he could very well pull a significant number of them over to his side to give him the boost that could very well compensate for the loss of conservative voters.
Does this boost our morale for the general? A little, but not much. The general is still eight months away, and anything could happen between now and then. In fact, he made a mistake yesterday with the speech he gave in Los Angeles when he touched on the global warming hoax, and presented it as a "must-do-something-about-it" instead of stepping back and laying of the topic. It's a sore spot with the GOP right now because many are listening to the scientists saying that the thing has been vastly overblown. (Of course with a blowhard like Al Gore pimping a movement, what can you expect other than a bunch of hot air?)
He hit the right buttons with the rest of the speech, including isolating Russia, and wanting them out of the G-8. He focused on the war, and the fact that this war will last a while longer. The need for us to stay on offense is imperative, and this is where McCain has his strongest points. They directly contrast the Democrats, and make them look incompetent and reactionary. But to blow off Democrats and independents would be foolhardy on his part. Reagan appealed to a wide variety of voters, and he never pandered to one party, group, or demographic specifically. McCain shouldn't either, but he does have to speak to the nation as a whole rather than focusing on one aspect of the nation.
Publius II
A new analysis of March polling data suggests that John McCain's cross-party support surpasses that of either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
According to data provided by the Gallup Organization at Politico’s request, in a hypothetical contest between McCain and Obama, McCain wins 17 percent of Democrats and those leaning Democratic, while Obama wins 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners. In a potential contest with Clinton, McCain wins 14 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners while Clinton wins 8 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners.
By way of comparison, exit polls in 2004 reported that George W. Bush won 11 percent of Democrats and John F. Kerry won 6 percent of Republicans.
The new analysis, calculated from a compilation of the Gallup Organization’s daily polls between March 7 and 22, seems to indicate that there are more “McCain Democrats” than the much-ballyhooed “Obama Republicans” — or “Obamacans,” as they are sometimes referred to.
The polls were aggregated at Politico’s request as part of an effort to assess the cross-party appeal of each candidate. The compilation created a larger sample size, allowing pollsters to more accurately decipher voting patterns by party affiliation.
McCain’s potential to win more crossover votes than either of the Democrats, a finding that also surfaces in surveys conducted by Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and in private GOP polls, could upend the political calculus for the November general election.
There are plenty of conservatives who have decided they won't vote for him, and they won't vote for the other two. They'll go and vote, but not for the presidency. We can understand that. We're not thrilled with him either, but the way this race is shaping up, like I said above, he needs all the help he can find. The numbers don't lie. Democrats aren't happy, and if supporters are alienated by the choice, they could lose in November. Not because John McCain is the best candidate, which we believe he is, but rather because they won't like who is chosen.
Obama's supporters don't like Hillary. Hillary supporters don't like Obama. To them, it doesn't matter who is chosen because one or the other will cause some of the Democrat base to stay home OR they'll choose to vote for McCain. Now yesterday I speculated that could help him. Today we learn that he could very well pull a significant number of them over to his side to give him the boost that could very well compensate for the loss of conservative voters.
Does this boost our morale for the general? A little, but not much. The general is still eight months away, and anything could happen between now and then. In fact, he made a mistake yesterday with the speech he gave in Los Angeles when he touched on the global warming hoax, and presented it as a "must-do-something-about-it" instead of stepping back and laying of the topic. It's a sore spot with the GOP right now because many are listening to the scientists saying that the thing has been vastly overblown. (Of course with a blowhard like Al Gore pimping a movement, what can you expect other than a bunch of hot air?)
He hit the right buttons with the rest of the speech, including isolating Russia, and wanting them out of the G-8. He focused on the war, and the fact that this war will last a while longer. The need for us to stay on offense is imperative, and this is where McCain has his strongest points. They directly contrast the Democrats, and make them look incompetent and reactionary. But to blow off Democrats and independents would be foolhardy on his part. Reagan appealed to a wide variety of voters, and he never pandered to one party, group, or demographic specifically. McCain shouldn't either, but he does have to speak to the nation as a whole rather than focusing on one aspect of the nation.
Publius II
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 10:51 AM
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