Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

McCain campaign on life support?

The Q2 numbers haven't come out yet, but we already know the wheels have fallen off of the car. Campaign staffers have said he raised more, but not much, and definitely not enough to remain relevant in the race. Well today, more bad news came down the pipe for McCain. In the state that treated him like a second son, and where he was counting on the majority of support, South Carolina has him polling in fourth place, and at 7%:

South Carolina appears poised to shake up the 2008 presidential race, with Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Fred Thompson the frontrunners in a new state survey by Mason-Dixon.

With strong support from the African American community, Illinois Senator Obama has assumed a strong lead over New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. On the Republican side, Thompson zoomed to the top spot, slightly ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, even though he hasn't yet announced his bid for the GOP nomination.

The Mason-Dixon poll, made available to McClatchy Newspapers and NBC News, offered disappointing news for two candidates who previously had been polling well in South Carolina. John Edwards, a South Carolina native who won the primary in 2004, was well behind Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side. Arizona Sen. John McCain, meanwhile, appeared to have lost many of his supporters to Thompson, and was far back in the GOP field. ...

... Thompson, a television actor and former Tennessee senator, topped Giuliani by 25 percent to 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was next at 11 percent, followed by McCain at 7 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5 percent. Huckabee has gotten strong notices in the last two Republican debates. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

The new poll was striking evidence of Thompson's rise from nowhere in early presidential readings to potential front-runner status. Thompson’s first campaign swing as he edges toward a formal candidacy will be in South Carolina on June 27.

“Thompson could be emerging as the Southern candidate,” said Brad Coker, managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.

McCain’s slide into single digits might reflect his support for the immigration reform package, legislation that is unpopular among South Carolina Republicans. South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham was booed at a recent GOP state gathering when he sought to defend the reforms.

“His support among base Republicans is slipping away,” Coker said of McCain.

Slipping away? It was virtually non-existent from the moment he tossed his hat in the ring. We've explained why this has happened to him. It's the focus of our newest column. McCain never had a chance to win. He blew it in 2000 and rather than accepting that defeat like a man and moving on, he let his temper get the best of him, and for the last six years he's been making the nation pay.

McCain's problem is that he didn't try to appeal to the base at all. Campaign finance reform wasn't an appeal to the conservative base, even though he kept using that "soft money" talking point. The law made it a lot easier for incumbents to stay in office, especially given the fact that no attack ads could appear before the general election. While little Johnny may not have liked that, most people -- the vast majority of the electorate -- don't even start paying attention to presidential or midterm campaigns until about sixty-to-ninety days before the election itself. By killing those ads, the voting populace has little idea of what a candidate stands for unless they've got the Internet. The media isn't helping them figure that out.

Don't feel sorry for him, folks. He did this to himself. No one put a gun to his head. No one twisted his arm. He decided that he was going to tick the base off for six years, which before this is all said and done, we expect him to lash out at the base just like the Captain Queeg we know he is. The arrogance is slowly finding it's way out into the open even though he has done a good job of keeping it under control. Most of it now is exposed in the immigration flap. But mark my words, before this is all said and done, he will blow, and when he does, he'll be done like dinner.

Publius II


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