A prediction

First, let me begin by saying "thank you" to all of those that have given Marcie their sympathies for the passing of her grandmother. She is very happy that so many do care, especially about someone they've never met, but one that they trust and understand is going through a painful process of grieving.

Second, later tonight, I'll be posting up the links to the new issue of Common Conservative just as soon as Mr. Lindaman publishes it. Please feel free to stop by and read the fine conservative commentators there.

Lastly, I do have a prediction. It's regarding the surge, and it's one that I've been thinking about for some time. A lot of those on the Left made a stink over the success of the surge when they pointed to very little accomplished on the political side. Let's be fair here: General Petreus's focus is on the military side of things, not the political side of things. He's not going to go into the Iraqi Parliament and crack skulls to get those things accomplished. It's not in his purview, nor in his mission in Iraq. His job is to secure the hot spots, and prepare the Iraqi military/security forces for our eventual departure.

And here is where the prediction comes into play, and pardon me if I go out on a limb. This prediction is backed up from what we're hearing out of Iraq right now.

As we know, the Iraqi Parliament is in recess. It has been since the beginning of August. (Another point of contention on the Left that they would have the audacity to recess while the fight continued in Iraq.) What we're hearing is that those Parliament members are talking to one another, and there is a distinct possibility that within days or even a couple weeks after their return, they are going to do their best to knock down a few more political benchmarks. What we are hearing from one of our close sources, the biggest point to be taken up by those in recess is the oil revenues that are supposed to be shared with the people of Iraq. It is something that has been at the top of Maliki's list of things-to-do, and President Bush's. This is being worked on right now. whether they can accomplish it remains to be seen, but an agreement could very well be met when they return.

The prediction is simple: When General Petreus returns in September and gives his report, he will report a serious amount of accomplishments met by US and Iraqi forces fighting the insurgency and AQ in Iraq. He will cite Diyala, al-Anbar, and Baghdad; all three have had significant reductions in violence, and better yet they've stayed mostly quiet once Iraqi forces remain behind to maintain security.

But he will also return with the political accomplishments made since the surge began, and show that the Iraqis are taking their role in running their own government seriously. This will be a point scrutinized by the media and the Left in Congress, but the normal wiggle room they have to spin the situation will be obviously absent; that being, there will be no such room. Of course this won't shut the Left up, but given their comments early on before the surge even reached it's full potential will be a millstone around their political necks.

The surge will not have failed. The fight is not over. We will have succeeded and the same goes for the Iraqis. Don't get me wrong, it'll be far from over. We will still have work to do, and a short time to accomplish it (we'd like to send the message to the region before the terrorists try a "Tet"-like assault). But the news will be good, and the defeatists in congress will be left grasping at straws that are no longer there. It won't shut the Democrats up, but it will make them look very bad, and incorrect as they always seem to be.

Publius II