Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Welcome to Election 2008, if third and fourth party people get their way

The newest Rasmussen numbers are out comparing Hillary to Rudy in a head-to-head matchup, and a couple of also rans tossed in on alternative tickets. the nightmare being that Hillary will win, but barely because Paul will pull from her, and not so much from Rudy:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by three percentage points in a four-way race that includes Ron Paul running as a Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader representing the Green Party. The poll shows Clinton earning 42% of the vote while Giuliani attracts 39%. Ron Paul is the choice for 8%, Ralph Nader is preferred by 4% and 7% are not sure.

The inclusion of two minor-party candidates has little impact on the gap between Clinton and Giuliani. Recent Rasmussen Reports polling shows Clinton leading Giuliani by an average of four percentage points in a two-way race. The gender gap is huge—Clinton leads by nineteen points among women while Giuliani leads by seventeen among men.

Perhaps because of his position on the War in Iraq, Paul attracts more support from Democrats than Republicans. He also earns 14% of the vote from unaffiliated voters. Paul is currently seeking the Republican Presidential Nomination and is running sixth behind Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee.

The Rasmussen Reports election poll also found Clinton leading Giuliani by five percentage points if Michael Bloomberg runs as a third-party option. In that case, it’s Clinton 43% Giuliani 38% and Bloomberg 11%. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey showed Clinton leading Giuliani by nine with Bloomberg as the third party option.

In both match-ups, unaffiliated voters split evenly between Clinton and Giuliani. Paul finds his strongest support among voters under 30. He attracts 13% of the vote from those youngest adults.

Typically, third-party candidates poll better early in the campaign and then see their support erode as Election Day draws near.

Clinton is currently the dominant frontrunner among those seeking the Democratic Presidential nomination. Her campaign has stumbled a bit in recent weeks making that race a tale of two narratives both of which happen to be true.

On the Republican side, Giuliani is on top of the national polls but Mitt Romney leads in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Remember that these numbers reflect a three-or-four-way race. (This was a prospect we warned people about late last month when the subject was broached in the media about possible third party candidates.) While the third-party guys have no chance in winning, they will draw from the two main frontrunners, and in the case of Ron Paul, he'll bleed Hillary worse than he bleeds Rudy.

For the Paul supporters, it has to really hurt to know that nationally, he's that far behind the top tier candidates, and the top of the second-tier candidates. It also has to bother them that he does appeal more to Democrats than Republicans, and that his strongest base of support comes from young adults. No offense to those people, but experience trumps youthful vigor. The prognosticators who are following this election know that the GOP base won't embrace Paul willingly -- mostly due to his war/foreign policy/isolationist stance, and the fact that voters know he'll never accomplish even a quarter of what he's proposing. Like Ross Perot learned in 1992, Congress doesn't work well with "mavericks" who threaten their status quo. And here's the last little bit of bad news for the Paul supporters -- ONE MAN can change little, if anything, in DC. You need more than one man, and those people have to have the courage of their convictions. Show me enough of those people willing to do what's necessary to correct Congress, and then we'll talk about Paul.

As for the veracity of this poll, I take little from it other than opening up the idea of additional parties thrown into the mix. But we knew what would happen if that happens, and the GOP can't outmaneuver the move by the also rans. It will prove to be disastrous to the GOP because of the way the vote will be split. I'm not saying that we're doomed. We know that there will be third party candidates in 2008. (And for the record, Paul has said he wouldn't consider a third party run unless there was a lot of support for him to run that way.) But if the GOP can counter what those candidates offer, sticking by their principles and their promises, then it's a distinct possibility that Hillary could be the one surprised on Election night.

Publius II