Richelieu: "My gut tells me the Huckabee surge is fading"

This would be a serious boon to Romney, and possibly even Fred Thompson. Richelieu @ The Weekly Standard's Campaign Standard blog writes the following observations from Iowa:

The Edwards campaign is trying hard to generate a sense of momentum in Iowa. I recognize a few trusty old dodges, mirrors, and other tricks from the spinmeister's toolbag in their spiel; they are pulling record (even Goldwater-esque) crowds, internal metrics like web visits, sign-ups, bumpersticker hand-outs, and my favorite of all "volunteer calling" all show growing support, etc., etc. (The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder falls hook, line, and sinker for it here.)

I'm more doubtful. It reminds me of Howard Dean's 41,000 committed and identified supporters on the eve of the last Iowa caucus. Still, an Edwards surprise win in Iowa is not impossible. Polls show him in the hunt, and he did well there in the past. He is a good campaigner. Hillary is on the rocks. But it is easy to mistake the final enthusiasm of your supporters, especially if they suspect the end is nigh, for a surge. We'll see what the world looks like right after Christmas.

Meanwhile, my gut tells me the Huckabee surge is fading now in Iowa. It might not be so bad for Romney after all. A narrow loss will look like a comeback after the original Huckabee polling leap knocked Romney's out-of-control expectations back down to earth. Plus, my Iowans tell me the new Romney comparison spots are starting to have an effect.

We can understand Edwards game of dirty pool. He is lagging behind the frontrunners -- three points behind a badly-damaged Hillary Clinton, and seven points behind a surging Barack Obama. Senator Clinton is attempting to regain ground she believes she should not have lost to Senator Obama by trying the "makeover" strategy; one that will not be as effective as she needs it to be. For John Edwards to have a shot, he needs to do whatever he can to surge up and over her. This will not only help his standing int he eyes of the Democrat base, but also kick Hillary while she is down.

The real news though is the end of the Huckabee surge. If Iowans are starting to get the information that the alternative media has been working hard getting out for voters to see, then yes his surge is done. This is evident because the alternative media -- blogs, vlogs, pundits, and talk radio -- is not giving up. It is not that we dislike Mike Huckabee. To accuse us of that would be to lie in our faces about what we know is not true.

These are the primaries. This is where we choose our nominee. We want the best nominee possible going up against theirs, and that will likely be Hillary despite how badly she has stumbled over these last few weeks.

Seriously thinking about it, they will not nominate Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, or Dennis Kucinich. None of them have the clout or the money to sway enough voters. Bill Richardson still sits on the wrong side of a very contentious issue. This leaves us with either Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Hillary Clinton; none of them our favorites due to what we see as an unelectability factor.

In our humble opinion, Mike Huckabee would be an albatross around the GOP's neck come the general election. His plans, while just slightly more conservative than the Democrat's, would still be bad for this nation. His primary weakness -- the one we simply cannot forgive him for -- are his views on United States foreign policy. We believe, as we did when we read his foreign affairs speech this past weekend, that he suffers from a naivete that only someone like Jimmy Carter, or possibly even Woodrow Wilson, suffered from. For most voters, the war -- Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond -- is the single issue that will drive us to the polls. We want to stay strong and effective in this war, and not lax off and allow our enemy time to regroup.

Mike Huckabee is dangerous in his assumption that he can play nice with nations like Iran and domesticate them like a pet. Nothing could be further from the truth, and the sooner he realizes that, the better off he will be. At the very least he would strengthen himself in an area of his political beliefs that we feel is his weakest point.

Marcie