Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Can Obama close the deal in Pennsylvania?

That's a question that surely is plaguing him, and it's one Democrats -- both primary voters and superdelegates -- should be asking themselves today. From The Politico:

Barack Obama raised $40 million in March, about twice as much as Hillary Rodham Clinton raised. He’s got 30 offices in Pennsylvania; she’s got 21 offices.

He’s outspending her on Pennsylvania television by about 5-to-1. And a flood of new voter registrations in the state — thousands of which were generated by his volunteers — suggest the electorate is changing in ways that work to his benefit.

At no time in this tightly fought presidential primary has there been such a stark imbalance between the two Democrats. So why not go in for the kill?

That’s what then-Texas Gov. George Bush did in 2000 when he set out to crush Sen. John McCain and settle the Republican presidential primary once and for all.

But what might have seemed a no-brainer in any other cycle is anything but in this unprecedented 2008 Democratic primary, say campaign advisers and political experts.

While it may be tempting for Obama to launch a final assault, some experts say, there are limits to what he can expect to accomplish given the state’s unique demographic mix and the striking consistency of primary voting patterns thus far.

“Each of these two candidates has built a demographic coalition that, with the exception of Wisconsin, has stayed with them throughout. There’s just not a lot of movement,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic strategist not affiliated with either campaign.

Thus, the large populations of Catholics, blue-collar workers, seniors and women who traditionally vote in the Keystone State’s Democratic primary tilt the scales toward Clinton, and there isn’t a whole lot Obama can do to change that.

If he can't finish her off by winning Pennsylvania (such a loss could drive her from the field) then how in the Hell is he expected to win in November. Sure, he's had success in many states, but given his thin resume, do Democrats really expect him to rout John McCain? If they do, then they may want to lie down.

Obama has hurt himself with the Wright flap, and admitted to the public he lied to them when he said he hadn't heard any of the controversial statements. His record regarding guns and abortion continue to roll out, which should put a touch of doubt in Pennsylvanians minds as we race towards the 22 April primary.

There are serious doubts that voters have regarding Obama's abilities. He should consider Pennsylvania the test to prove he can handle things. If he doesn't score a knockout there, and he does trail her by five points as of 1 April, then the leaders in the Democrat party who will act as superdelegates should consider whether he's the right man for the job, or if they need to look to Hillary as their candidate come November.

Publius II


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