Singing the blues in Ohio

HT: Bryan at Hot Air

A new Quinnipac Poll holds bad news for Hillary, and if this maintains the numbers today that will reflect on the election in November, Ohio will not only serve as a swing state, but it also won't land in Hillary's column at the end of the night:

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton remain virtually deadlocked with 44 percent for the Democrat and 43 percent for the Republican in the Ohio presidential race. Voters say 49 - 29 percent that Gov. Ted Strickland is not qualified to be vice president and his presence on the ticket would not help the Democratic nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Mayor Giuliani and Sen. Clinton each hold substantial leads in the race for their party nominations, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. While 55 percent of Ohio voters say they are less likely to vote against a candidate who favors issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants, only 3 percent are more likely to support that candidate.

Despite their wide leads for the nominations, both Clinton and Giuliani face sizable segments of the Ohio electorate (41 percent for her, 39 percent for him) who say they would never vote for them. Clinton's problems are worse among married voters - 46 percent of married women and 48 percent of married men say they would never vote for her.

While Democratic Gov. Strickland was overwhelmingly elected in November 2006, only 13 percent of Ohio voters, including 20 percent of Democrats, are more likely to vote for the Democratic ticket next year if Strickland is running as Vice President. Eleven percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Strickland ticket and 68 percent say it won't affect their vote.

"Even though Gov. Strickland is very popular among Ohioans, they do not see him as vice presidential material and do not give any indication he would be substantial help to the Democratic nominee in carrying Ohio's crucial electoral votes," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Let's rundown the bullet points from Stop Her Now:

-- Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton remain virtually deadlocked with 44 percent for the Democrat and 43 percent for the Republican in the Ohio presidential race.

-- Clinton loses to Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 42 percent.

-- Voters say 49 - 29 percent that Gov. Ted Strickland is not qualified to be vice president and his presence on the ticket would not help the Democratic nominee.

-- 41 percent of voters say they would never vote for her and 46 percent of married women and 48 percent of married men say they would never vote for her.

-- Voters disagree 61 - 33 percent with the assumption that no Republican can be elected President in 2008 because of Bush’s low approval and the war in Iraq. Democrats agree 50 - 41 percent, while Republicans disagree 84 - 11 percent and independent voters disagree with the statement 62 - 33 percent.

-- 84 percent of voters disapprove of state’s giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants.

-- 86 percent oppose providing illegal immigrants with government financed health insurance.

-- 85 percent oppose providing illegal immigrants with social services such as welfare, food stamps and housing assistance.

So why does this matter? Because it's Ohio. Since 1892, Ohio has been in the winner's column in all but two elections (1944 and 1960, Dewey and Nixon, respectively), and no Republican has ever won the white House without Ohio. It is the key swing state in the election, and has the ability to seal up an election.

Given the negatives she's facing in Ohio, things don't look good. Also, it's telling that a popularly elected governor can't help her if she takes him as a running mate. (In 1944, Ohioans supported Dewey because of his running mate, John Bricker.)

And this polls highlights the biggest problem the Democrats are facing despite Spitzer's epiphany that his idea wasn't so hot. The change of heart doesn't help Hillary Clinton, who sounded praise for the idea during the last debate. (For those that missed that, she was savaged by Chris Dodd for the idea.) Immigration seems to be the Achilles Heel of the Democrats this time around. Again, the Politico reported on this issue, and showed that the Democrats face a serious problem over this in the election.

It also speaks volumes that voters in Ohio, especially registered Democrats, believe that a Republican could win in 2008. Granted, the nominee has to be strong, and the GOP can ill afford a misstep in the general election. But it's plain to see that Rudy has closed the gap there, and that he is gearing up to give her a run for her money.

Oh, and I'd like to add this aside. Last night I ventured back into my old stomping grounds in the chat rooms, and ran into a Democrat who just couldn't believe the support for Rudy Giuliani. He continued to cite Rudy's stances on guns, abortion, and gay marriage, and claimed that no one with those negative points would ever be embraced by the GOP base. So, for the record, I offer up these three reminders:

-- Rudy has evolved his position on guns, and given the mess he was facing in NYC, he was left with little alternative than to support the federal law on the books. Additionally, he used that law to cut down the crime rates in NYC by jailing the felons caught with firearms; an illegal act, if some people would remember basic law. He believes that, like abortion, that is an issue that belongs to the states.

-- While Rudy is considered "pro-choice," his record on abortion in NY is well-founded. He did help drop the rates of abortions in NYC, and urged clinics to educate expectant, doubtful mothers on the alternative of adoption. If one is to look at Rudy's true position on abortion -- bear in mind he has said repeatedly that Roe is bad jurisprudence -- it differs little from what the law says now; they are to be allowed in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother.

-- Rudy is NOT in favor of gay marriage. He favors civil unions. He has stated on the campaign trail that he believes marriage is between a man and a woman.

Furthermore, my opponent didn't believe a thrice-married man, who has alienated children and former spouses, could be elected. The point he misses is that Rudy has been forthright with his past. He hasn't tried to hide from it, or hide it from the public. Contrast this with Bill Clinton, who couldn't and wouldn't quit his philandering ways, covered up his past indiscretions, lied about the present ones, and then blamed the revelations on hatemongers.

Being disingenuous in this race isn't going to help Democrats, and given the latest batch of polling for primary states, the Democrats are in trouble. They may very well hold onto Congress, but as things stand now, their prospects to take back the white house continue to dim.

Publius II