Could Obama blow this election?
The Obama camp has problems; a lot of problems. We have no idea why the Obama camp might be a bit panicked, but apparently they are, and you can tell they're a tad worried because they're being snarky about their worries:
Can Barack Obama actually blow this thing? Can he actually lose in November?
We have a deeply troubled economy, an unpopular war, a very unpopular president and a historic reluctance on the part of the American people to elect the same party to the White House three terms in a row. You look at all that, and you figure Obama would be leading by double digits. But he isn’t.
The race is essentially tied, and not just in the national polls, which really don’t count for much, but in the Electoral College projections, which do. On Monday, MSNBC put its electoral count at 233 for Obama and 227 for McCain, with 270 needed for victory. That’s really close.
Some Democrats are getting very concerned, and they have been making their concerns known to the Obama campaign. “We’re familiar with this,” Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, told The New York Times a few days ago. “And I’m sure between now and Nov. 4 there will be another period of hand-wringing and bed-wetting. It comes with the territory.”
Hand-wringing and bed-wetting? Stay classy David Plouffe. Those must be professional terms for "worry" and "concern." So, what exactly is he saying here? Is he saying that only hand-wringers and bed-wetters doubt Obama? Really? I got news for Plouffe. In my line of work, I have to deal with the youth Obama's counting on in November. Two of the five interns are fairly conservative, so I don't have to work on them. They're voting McCain/Palin.
The other three, however, were Obama supporters. Since they arrived at the station at the beginning of September, they have been trying to switch me over, and I'm doing the same to them. They do try their best, but it's no use against me. I know Obama. They don't. None of them knew about William Ayers or Jeremiah Wright. No one knew that he's basically been sexist on the campaign trial. None of them knew about his ideas for taxation, or for the war (these aren't anti-war liberals because they believe we did what we had to after 11 September), and they had no clue the amount of new spending that would be put in place under and Obama presidency.
Since I began working them over, I have one who is flatly against Obama now, one that's on the fence, and the other one simply covers his ears when he hears me because he can't suspend his fantasy world to take a look at reality. What's that reality? If Obama wins (which he won't; it would require a Biblical miracle) this nation is going to be in worse shape than it was under Jimmy Carter. See, these kids don't remember Jimmy Carter. While I might have been young, I do remember him, and Barack Obama would be just as bad as he was on the economy.
Unemployment was at 10%. Inflation was at 15%. Gas lines stretched across the country (not literally, but you remember it, too). And what was Carter's advice to the nation? Wear a sweater, and get used to it.
Obama has posited spending in excess of $400 billion. Where will that money come from? He has said 95% of us will get a tax cut, and he's only going after the top five percent. The top five percent have been paying their fair share of taxes for years, but when their tax rate goes up, what do those people do? If they're business people, they pass that onto their consumers. If they're like Bill gates or Warren Buffett (people who don't technically run a business), they put their money in safe places where the government can't get their hands on it. When those tax revenues Obama is counting on don't come rolling in, he's going to tax us. (In essence, he'll tax us anyway while giving money to people who don't pay taxes to begin with.)
Voters see this and understand it. At least voters who understand how politicians see this. The youth doesn't because they haven't had to deal with life, in general, really. Taxes? Not to the effect that most people have to deal with. Jobs? Sure, an on the side job; one that takes care of their "needs" at the time, but not a career. The youth in this country may think that Obama is the guy who can change everything about this nation, and while to an extent that might be true, the change will not be for the better.
It'll be worse. Much worse. The hand-wringing and bed-wetting isn't coming from the electorate. It's coming from Obama's supporters, especially those within the media. They're seeing the shift and they don't like it. This wasn't supposed to happen. Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann, and the rest of the numb-from-the-brain-down media were supposed to shape public opinion in Obama's favor. But as we've seen in recent weeks, they aren't doing such a great job at it. Maybe it's their incessant and vitriolic attacks on Sarah Palin. Maybe it's the public who woke up and saw how in the tank the media was for Obama. We don't know for sure. But we do know that Obama is in deep trouble.
And who caused that trouble? It wasn't us. We didn't put a gun to his head. We didn't tell him to blow this race. He's doing it all on his own. Part of it may be due to his dependence on a teleprompter. Part of it may be because he has petulant tantrums. We don't really know. But voters do know why he's causing panic in his own camp. He's slipping in the polls. His convention bump was nullified by the Palin announcement, and John McCain got a much bigger bounce out of his convention. He and Sarah Palin have been on the offensive ever since, and Obama's been on defense. Democrats don't do well on defense.
So David Plouffe can lash out at the hand-wringers and bed-wetters for their lack of faith. We're sure Obama finds it "disturbing," at best. But they can't change the fact that there is worry on their side, and it's not unfounded. They see the slippage. They see that Obama hasn't had a "winning week" since the end of the primaries. By now he should have at least a ten point lead int he polls. All that money, all the hype, all the enthusiasm is gone; wasted on a rookie that didn't really have a chance once he was put under the electorate's intense microscope. That's the reason for their concern. The electorate is looking at him, and they're not impressed by what they see.
HT to Hugh Hewitt
Publius II
Can Barack Obama actually blow this thing? Can he actually lose in November?
We have a deeply troubled economy, an unpopular war, a very unpopular president and a historic reluctance on the part of the American people to elect the same party to the White House three terms in a row. You look at all that, and you figure Obama would be leading by double digits. But he isn’t.
The race is essentially tied, and not just in the national polls, which really don’t count for much, but in the Electoral College projections, which do. On Monday, MSNBC put its electoral count at 233 for Obama and 227 for McCain, with 270 needed for victory. That’s really close.
Some Democrats are getting very concerned, and they have been making their concerns known to the Obama campaign. “We’re familiar with this,” Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, told The New York Times a few days ago. “And I’m sure between now and Nov. 4 there will be another period of hand-wringing and bed-wetting. It comes with the territory.”
Hand-wringing and bed-wetting? Stay classy David Plouffe. Those must be professional terms for "worry" and "concern." So, what exactly is he saying here? Is he saying that only hand-wringers and bed-wetters doubt Obama? Really? I got news for Plouffe. In my line of work, I have to deal with the youth Obama's counting on in November. Two of the five interns are fairly conservative, so I don't have to work on them. They're voting McCain/Palin.
The other three, however, were Obama supporters. Since they arrived at the station at the beginning of September, they have been trying to switch me over, and I'm doing the same to them. They do try their best, but it's no use against me. I know Obama. They don't. None of them knew about William Ayers or Jeremiah Wright. No one knew that he's basically been sexist on the campaign trial. None of them knew about his ideas for taxation, or for the war (these aren't anti-war liberals because they believe we did what we had to after 11 September), and they had no clue the amount of new spending that would be put in place under and Obama presidency.
Since I began working them over, I have one who is flatly against Obama now, one that's on the fence, and the other one simply covers his ears when he hears me because he can't suspend his fantasy world to take a look at reality. What's that reality? If Obama wins (which he won't; it would require a Biblical miracle) this nation is going to be in worse shape than it was under Jimmy Carter. See, these kids don't remember Jimmy Carter. While I might have been young, I do remember him, and Barack Obama would be just as bad as he was on the economy.
Unemployment was at 10%. Inflation was at 15%. Gas lines stretched across the country (not literally, but you remember it, too). And what was Carter's advice to the nation? Wear a sweater, and get used to it.
Obama has posited spending in excess of $400 billion. Where will that money come from? He has said 95% of us will get a tax cut, and he's only going after the top five percent. The top five percent have been paying their fair share of taxes for years, but when their tax rate goes up, what do those people do? If they're business people, they pass that onto their consumers. If they're like Bill gates or Warren Buffett (people who don't technically run a business), they put their money in safe places where the government can't get their hands on it. When those tax revenues Obama is counting on don't come rolling in, he's going to tax us. (In essence, he'll tax us anyway while giving money to people who don't pay taxes to begin with.)
Voters see this and understand it. At least voters who understand how politicians see this. The youth doesn't because they haven't had to deal with life, in general, really. Taxes? Not to the effect that most people have to deal with. Jobs? Sure, an on the side job; one that takes care of their "needs" at the time, but not a career. The youth in this country may think that Obama is the guy who can change everything about this nation, and while to an extent that might be true, the change will not be for the better.
It'll be worse. Much worse. The hand-wringing and bed-wetting isn't coming from the electorate. It's coming from Obama's supporters, especially those within the media. They're seeing the shift and they don't like it. This wasn't supposed to happen. Chris Matthews, Keith Olbermann, and the rest of the numb-from-the-brain-down media were supposed to shape public opinion in Obama's favor. But as we've seen in recent weeks, they aren't doing such a great job at it. Maybe it's their incessant and vitriolic attacks on Sarah Palin. Maybe it's the public who woke up and saw how in the tank the media was for Obama. We don't know for sure. But we do know that Obama is in deep trouble.
And who caused that trouble? It wasn't us. We didn't put a gun to his head. We didn't tell him to blow this race. He's doing it all on his own. Part of it may be due to his dependence on a teleprompter. Part of it may be because he has petulant tantrums. We don't really know. But voters do know why he's causing panic in his own camp. He's slipping in the polls. His convention bump was nullified by the Palin announcement, and John McCain got a much bigger bounce out of his convention. He and Sarah Palin have been on the offensive ever since, and Obama's been on defense. Democrats don't do well on defense.
So David Plouffe can lash out at the hand-wringers and bed-wetters for their lack of faith. We're sure Obama finds it "disturbing," at best. But they can't change the fact that there is worry on their side, and it's not unfounded. They see the slippage. They see that Obama hasn't had a "winning week" since the end of the primaries. By now he should have at least a ten point lead int he polls. All that money, all the hype, all the enthusiasm is gone; wasted on a rookie that didn't really have a chance once he was put under the electorate's intense microscope. That's the reason for their concern. The electorate is looking at him, and they're not impressed by what they see.
HT to Hugh Hewitt
Publius II
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 9:32 AM
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