Immigration Update -- Within 5 to 7 Votes Of Killing this

We are almost there and tomorrow is likely to be D-Day. Thomas posted the original prediction from Mark Krikorian on the numbers that we have supposedly. Today Jim Geraghty @ The Corner praises Mr. Krikorian on his accuracy, and then drops the bombshell that we had been waiting for: We are within range of killing this bill as it is reintroduced. In doing so, we can end the debate before it even begins, delivering a severe blow to the president, and those proponents that seem happier about concensus than passing a good bill:

Just spoke to a spokesman for a Republican opposed to the deal, and helping lead the opposition. Here's what we know right now:

1. Tomorrow is the first test, on the vote to bring it back to the floor. Deal supporters need 60. Opponents think they have about 33-35 right now, so they only need about five to seven more. Kirkorian's earlier Corner post was praised for its accuracy.

Some Republicans on the fence are going to try to have it both ways - vote to bring it back to the floor, so they can get their amendments considered, but not necessarily promise to vote for a) cloture to cut off debate and b) passage. Nonetheless, bill opponents should not forgive a vote to bring it back to the floor, I'm told. They're within a few votes of killing the deal before it comes back; why take the chance on a later vote?

2. The fact that senators are announcing how they will vote on a "procedural" vote is a huge sign of how much pressure they're feeling. For opponents, it's reason for very cautious optimism.

3. A loss tomorrow means there are still two more chances to kill the bill; still, a good opportunity will have been missed.

4. The cloture vote may come before, or after, consideration of certain amendments. Skeptics should not be all that impressed with amendments approved by Reid and Kennedy. Less likely than "poison pills" are "fig leaf" amendments that improve the bill in cosmetic ways, but don't significantly address the real problems with the bill.

If we are this close, we cannot back down now. We cannot let the pressure up one iota. On Friday, we went into the weekend down by eight votes. Somewhere along the way we picked up one. (Though we are not quite sure where. Our computer problems started up on Saturday, and have yet to be fully solved.) This much we do know. We know that senators have been getting an earful on the bill, and that the pressure is moreso this time around. People are sick of the sleight of hand being perpetuated by bill proponents, and at the top of the list is President Bush.

That does not mean you can excuse those in the Senate. By all means, do not do so. Hold them accountable. When they call for contributions, remind them that they voted for amnesty. Remind them that they voted for a bill that would have crippled this nation. Remind them that they were willing to open this nation up further to those that wish to strike us again. The, when you are all said and done, remind them that you are an honorable person of your word; not one damn dime.

These people have been hearing from us. Keep it up. It is clear that some will attempt to get their amendments heard. The problem with that line of thought is there is not one single amendment that will improve this bill enough to warrant passage. Kennedy, McCain, the White House, et al want this passed. They do not care of the repercussions down the road because they know it will not affect them. Let them believe that, but I believe it is time to rid both sides of the aisle of these people.

With his support behind this bill, the president has effectively made himself a lame duck in the eyes of the voters. Their trust will extend only to those issues that matter most, and they will ignore him from here on out. The trust for the Senate has plunged. People are not happy. Harry Reid is not sitting at 19% for nothing. He is the primary guy pushing this thing through the Senate, and as Majoirty Leader, he bears the brunt of the criticism. Coming from Nevada -- a state close enough to the US southern border -- like John McCain, he should know better. But this does not go towards what is right and sensible. For them it is what works right now on paper and not in real-life, under real conditions.

Get on the phones. You have less than twenty-four hours. Call up every Republican and Democrat and tell them to NOT vote for cloture to return this shoddy piece of legislation to the floor. Kill it. Force Reid's hand to do hi9s little song and dance with the procedural measure.

Marcie