McConnell wavering? Pelosi not exactly enthused? -- UPDATED & BUMPED With Analysis From Marcie
HT: Allah at Hot Air for the updates. Let's start with Speaker Pelosi first:
“I’m optimistic now that there’s a chance that they will be able to get a bill out,” Pelosi said in an interview conducted on Wednesday by Jonathan Singer of the liberal blog MyDD.com. “It all depends on the leadership of the president. If he cares enough about it, which I believe he does, then the Senate will pass comprehensive, bipartisan immigration legislation.”
However, Pelosi did not offer an endorsement of the immigration bill, even if it manages to pass the Senate.
“We’ll watch it very carefully to see what it is and see what we can do to either improve upon it or possibly reject it,” she said. “But again, it has to meet certain standards. We have our standards. We’ve put them out there. Secure our borders, workplace enforcement, protect our workers, non-exploitation of the people coming in and a path to legalization for the millions of people in the United States now.
We could care less about the secondary part of the last statement there. Recognizing that the borders must be secured is a plus. That means she's hearing from us. Keep it up. And the fact she didn't immediately jump on the endorsement bandwagon is also a plus. (Yes, mark this day in history because I said something nice about Madame Pelosi.)
Kate O'Beirne has a prospective list of GOP senators leaning towards a "no" vote on cloture:
Opponents of the immigration bill recognize that the vote on cloture (maybe tomorrow, but probably early next week) will be key. Outside groups are scoring a vote for cloture as a vote for the bill. Cloture will succeed with 60 votes. Outspoken critics of the bill can be expected to vote "No." Yesterday, Georgia senators Chambliss and Isakson announced their opposition. Given the size of the unpersuadable caucus that will support cloture, opponents are fighting uphill. Based on talking with well-informed sources, this is the most accurate list I've seen of the Republican senators whose intentions are unknown and whose support will be needed in order to defeat cloture: Richard Burr (N.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Kit Bond (Mo.), Pat Roberts (Kan.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Norm Coleman (Min.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Tex.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Bob Bennett (Utah), and John Sununu (N.H.). (And opponents hope they can count on about a dozen Democrats).
That's fourteen by our count, and that's a start. It doesn't look like any of these people (a couple of which are introducing amendments of their own) are too hip to this bill. Should any of us be surprised? (You really shouldn't be, trust us.)
Remember the phone number? 202-225-3121 It's important you use that number in the coming days (and keep using it). especially on Mitch McConnell:
The Senate's Republican leader says he is unsure whether he will vote for the immigration bill President Bush strongly supports, underscoring the measure's precarious status.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has long called for an immigration overhaul, saying the current situation is deeply flawed. And as the Senate minority leader, McConnell is central to shepherding legislation the president wants.
But in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, McConnell said he would not decide how to vote on the measure until a long series of amendments are disposed of next week.
"The bill on the merits is a mixed bag," said McConnell, who had brushed aside reporters' questions on immigration Tuesday and Wednesday. "I'm not uniformly enthusiastic about it."
"At the end of the process," he said, "we're going to have to make a call as to whether this is an improvement over the status quo. I'm not ready to make that call yet."
McConnell said it is unclear whether the bill's supporters can muster the 60 votes eventually needed to allow a final roll call on the bill in the 100-member Senate. His chief goal, he said, has been to see that all Republicans are treated fairly and allowed to be heard.
If McConnell's wavering on this, then we have a chance. John Kyl assured Hugh's listeners yesterday that there will be a special provision placed in the enforcement amendment to deal with those of "special interest" trying to obtain a visa, or stay here legally:
HH: Does the bill provide for any separate treatment of aliens, illegal aliens from countries of special concern, relative to those from Spanish-speaking countries?
JK: It’s going to, as a result of your lobbying efforts to me. I’ve added language, it’s in the process of being drafted now, that will be included in a so-called enforcement amendment which we fully expect to pass.
That's just one step in the right direction. He also notes some other changes from the GOP:
HH: Do you expect that any of the Republican amendments are going to pass that would substantially change the enforcement, or just any of the Republican amendments?
JK: Yeah, I certainly hope so, and I think there will be. The first one that I mentioned is an amendment that Lindsey Graham and I, and some others worked on that will substantially enhance, oh, it’s about fifteen pages of enhancement on enforcement. For example, you have spoken of the problem, and others have, about the so-called 24 hour period within which to do the security checks. That 24 hour limitation is being dropped. There will be another amendment that provides for mandatory detention for any visa overstayer. There will be another amendment that Senator Coleman has that makes the sanctuary cities, well, it preempts it, and says that we can’t have the separate policy of sanctuary cities anymore, contrary to federal law, so that local officials have to cooperate with federal law enforcement in enforcing the law.
There's cause for a little celebration right now, but the war isn't over. Get on the phones and call. Keep calling. Call until your ear hurts and your fingers are ready to fall off. We're already showing the supporters that we're not backing down on this bill. We're showing them we can play hardball better than they can. Let's kill this bill once and for all, or force the drastic changes to it that need to be achieved.
Publius II
ADDENDUM: I would like to help my husband out here a little. I just reread the piece from Kate O'Beirne:
Opponents of the immigration bill recognize that the vote on cloture (maybe tomorrow, but probably early next week) will be key. Outside groups are scoring a vote for cloture as a vote for the bill. Cloture will succeed with 60 votes. Outspoken critics of the bill can be expected to vote "No." Yesterday, Georgia senators Chambliss and Isakson announced their opposition. Given the size of the unpersuadable caucus that will support cloture, opponents are fighting uphill. Based on talking with well-informed sources, this is the most accurate list I've seen of the Republican senators whose intentions are unknown and whose support will be needed in order to defeat cloture: Richard Burr (N.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Kit Bond (Mo.), Pat Roberts (Kan.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Norm Coleman (Min.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Tex.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Bob Bennett (Utah), and John Sununu (N.H.). (And opponents hope they can count on about a dozen Democrats).
I have emphasized the names above for a couple of reasons. First, let us look at who is up for reelection in 2008:
Lamar Alexander
Pat Roberts
Gordon Smith
Thad Cochran
Norm Coleman
John Sununu
Saxby Chambliss
That is seven of the senators above that face a serious problem in 2008, but I do not think they are as "on the fence" as they appear to be. Why? Because if you read the roll call on the original cloture vote that put the bloody thing on life support to begin with, they all noted against cloture. In addition, I looked at those that are up for reelection in 2008:
Jeff Sessions, AK
Ted Stevens, AK
Wayne Allard, CO
Saxby Chambliss, GA
Pat Roberts, KS
Susan Collins, ME
Norm Coleman, MN
Thad Cochran, MI
Chuck Hagel, NE
John Sununu, NH
Pete Domenici, NM
Elizabeth Dole, NC
James Inhofe, OK
Gordon Smith, OR
Lindsey Graham, SC
Lamar Alexander, TN
John Cornyn, TX
John Warner, VA
Michael Enzi, WY
Senator Enzi did not vote. Senators Hagel and Graham voted yes. The rest of them all voted against cloture. As I pointed out, seven of those in the anti-cloture coalition are on the above list. These people know how nasty of an issue this is. They know how hot the nation is about this. It is a safe assumption that those voting against cloture the first time around will be the ones holding the line against it now.
What is known is that Jeff Sessions and Jim DeMint are still on the no cloture side. Joining them today are Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn. Both John Isakson and Saxby Chambliss have joined the no-cloture caucus. That's about eighteen votes that I count right now that we have to stop the bill again.
We should also remember that the last time around, there were ten Democrats that sided with the no-cloture caucus. Hopefully they will be there again, though we are aware of amendments offered up by:
Max Baucus
Barbara Boxer
Robert Byrd
Claire McCaskill
Jim Webb
Those people voted no, but it is likely due to the fact they were not allowed to offer up their amendments. If they get the chance, and they pass, their vote is liable to disappear. The other Democrats that voted no were:
Mark Bingaman
Mary Landrieu
Mark Pryor
Nelson Rockefeller
Jim Tester
If these senators join with the no-cloture caucus, that gives us a possible twenty-eight senators against. That leaves thirteen left to flip. To beat this again, we need at least forty-one votes. If Harry Reid, Trent Lott, John McCain, and Ted Kennedy do not get sixty votes, the bill will die again.
I know it is futile to start counting votes, but on the heels of the news that Thomas presented -- that cracks are starting to form amongst the bill's supporters on our side -- it makes sense to have an idea of what sort of uphill battle we are going to go through. The ideal strategy is to target the senators facing reelection first, and remind them that a "yes" vote for cloture will not be good for their campaigns. Then go after the others that seem to be bending. Start with Mitch McConnell, and go down the list of those in the Kate O'Beirne piece. Then go to the rest of them.
Whether these people are Republican or Democrat matters not. This issue has crossed the spectrum; the ideological divide on this issue is not there. Both sides are raising Cain over this. Do not sit on the sidelines. Call.
Marcie
“I’m optimistic now that there’s a chance that they will be able to get a bill out,” Pelosi said in an interview conducted on Wednesday by Jonathan Singer of the liberal blog MyDD.com. “It all depends on the leadership of the president. If he cares enough about it, which I believe he does, then the Senate will pass comprehensive, bipartisan immigration legislation.”
However, Pelosi did not offer an endorsement of the immigration bill, even if it manages to pass the Senate.
“We’ll watch it very carefully to see what it is and see what we can do to either improve upon it or possibly reject it,” she said. “But again, it has to meet certain standards. We have our standards. We’ve put them out there. Secure our borders, workplace enforcement, protect our workers, non-exploitation of the people coming in and a path to legalization for the millions of people in the United States now.
We could care less about the secondary part of the last statement there. Recognizing that the borders must be secured is a plus. That means she's hearing from us. Keep it up. And the fact she didn't immediately jump on the endorsement bandwagon is also a plus. (Yes, mark this day in history because I said something nice about Madame Pelosi.)
Kate O'Beirne has a prospective list of GOP senators leaning towards a "no" vote on cloture:
Opponents of the immigration bill recognize that the vote on cloture (maybe tomorrow, but probably early next week) will be key. Outside groups are scoring a vote for cloture as a vote for the bill. Cloture will succeed with 60 votes. Outspoken critics of the bill can be expected to vote "No." Yesterday, Georgia senators Chambliss and Isakson announced their opposition. Given the size of the unpersuadable caucus that will support cloture, opponents are fighting uphill. Based on talking with well-informed sources, this is the most accurate list I've seen of the Republican senators whose intentions are unknown and whose support will be needed in order to defeat cloture: Richard Burr (N.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Kit Bond (Mo.), Pat Roberts (Kan.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Norm Coleman (Min.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Tex.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Bob Bennett (Utah), and John Sununu (N.H.). (And opponents hope they can count on about a dozen Democrats).
That's fourteen by our count, and that's a start. It doesn't look like any of these people (a couple of which are introducing amendments of their own) are too hip to this bill. Should any of us be surprised? (You really shouldn't be, trust us.)
Remember the phone number? 202-225-3121 It's important you use that number in the coming days (and keep using it). especially on Mitch McConnell:
The Senate's Republican leader says he is unsure whether he will vote for the immigration bill President Bush strongly supports, underscoring the measure's precarious status.
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has long called for an immigration overhaul, saying the current situation is deeply flawed. And as the Senate minority leader, McConnell is central to shepherding legislation the president wants.
But in an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, McConnell said he would not decide how to vote on the measure until a long series of amendments are disposed of next week.
"The bill on the merits is a mixed bag," said McConnell, who had brushed aside reporters' questions on immigration Tuesday and Wednesday. "I'm not uniformly enthusiastic about it."
"At the end of the process," he said, "we're going to have to make a call as to whether this is an improvement over the status quo. I'm not ready to make that call yet."
McConnell said it is unclear whether the bill's supporters can muster the 60 votes eventually needed to allow a final roll call on the bill in the 100-member Senate. His chief goal, he said, has been to see that all Republicans are treated fairly and allowed to be heard.
If McConnell's wavering on this, then we have a chance. John Kyl assured Hugh's listeners yesterday that there will be a special provision placed in the enforcement amendment to deal with those of "special interest" trying to obtain a visa, or stay here legally:
HH: Does the bill provide for any separate treatment of aliens, illegal aliens from countries of special concern, relative to those from Spanish-speaking countries?
JK: It’s going to, as a result of your lobbying efforts to me. I’ve added language, it’s in the process of being drafted now, that will be included in a so-called enforcement amendment which we fully expect to pass.
That's just one step in the right direction. He also notes some other changes from the GOP:
HH: Do you expect that any of the Republican amendments are going to pass that would substantially change the enforcement, or just any of the Republican amendments?
JK: Yeah, I certainly hope so, and I think there will be. The first one that I mentioned is an amendment that Lindsey Graham and I, and some others worked on that will substantially enhance, oh, it’s about fifteen pages of enhancement on enforcement. For example, you have spoken of the problem, and others have, about the so-called 24 hour period within which to do the security checks. That 24 hour limitation is being dropped. There will be another amendment that provides for mandatory detention for any visa overstayer. There will be another amendment that Senator Coleman has that makes the sanctuary cities, well, it preempts it, and says that we can’t have the separate policy of sanctuary cities anymore, contrary to federal law, so that local officials have to cooperate with federal law enforcement in enforcing the law.
There's cause for a little celebration right now, but the war isn't over. Get on the phones and call. Keep calling. Call until your ear hurts and your fingers are ready to fall off. We're already showing the supporters that we're not backing down on this bill. We're showing them we can play hardball better than they can. Let's kill this bill once and for all, or force the drastic changes to it that need to be achieved.
Publius II
ADDENDUM: I would like to help my husband out here a little. I just reread the piece from Kate O'Beirne:
Opponents of the immigration bill recognize that the vote on cloture (maybe tomorrow, but probably early next week) will be key. Outside groups are scoring a vote for cloture as a vote for the bill. Cloture will succeed with 60 votes. Outspoken critics of the bill can be expected to vote "No." Yesterday, Georgia senators Chambliss and Isakson announced their opposition. Given the size of the unpersuadable caucus that will support cloture, opponents are fighting uphill. Based on talking with well-informed sources, this is the most accurate list I've seen of the Republican senators whose intentions are unknown and whose support will be needed in order to defeat cloture: Richard Burr (N.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Kit Bond (Mo.), Pat Roberts (Kan.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Thad Cochran (Miss.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Norm Coleman (Min.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Tex.), Orrin Hatch (Utah), Bob Bennett (Utah), and John Sununu (N.H.). (And opponents hope they can count on about a dozen Democrats).
I have emphasized the names above for a couple of reasons. First, let us look at who is up for reelection in 2008:
Lamar Alexander
Pat Roberts
Gordon Smith
Thad Cochran
Norm Coleman
John Sununu
Saxby Chambliss
That is seven of the senators above that face a serious problem in 2008, but I do not think they are as "on the fence" as they appear to be. Why? Because if you read the roll call on the original cloture vote that put the bloody thing on life support to begin with, they all noted against cloture. In addition, I looked at those that are up for reelection in 2008:
Jeff Sessions, AK
Ted Stevens, AK
Wayne Allard, CO
Saxby Chambliss, GA
Pat Roberts, KS
Susan Collins, ME
Norm Coleman, MN
Thad Cochran, MI
Chuck Hagel, NE
John Sununu, NH
Pete Domenici, NM
Elizabeth Dole, NC
James Inhofe, OK
Gordon Smith, OR
Lindsey Graham, SC
Lamar Alexander, TN
John Cornyn, TX
John Warner, VA
Michael Enzi, WY
Senator Enzi did not vote. Senators Hagel and Graham voted yes. The rest of them all voted against cloture. As I pointed out, seven of those in the anti-cloture coalition are on the above list. These people know how nasty of an issue this is. They know how hot the nation is about this. It is a safe assumption that those voting against cloture the first time around will be the ones holding the line against it now.
What is known is that Jeff Sessions and Jim DeMint are still on the no cloture side. Joining them today are Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn. Both John Isakson and Saxby Chambliss have joined the no-cloture caucus. That's about eighteen votes that I count right now that we have to stop the bill again.
We should also remember that the last time around, there were ten Democrats that sided with the no-cloture caucus. Hopefully they will be there again, though we are aware of amendments offered up by:
Max Baucus
Barbara Boxer
Robert Byrd
Claire McCaskill
Jim Webb
Those people voted no, but it is likely due to the fact they were not allowed to offer up their amendments. If they get the chance, and they pass, their vote is liable to disappear. The other Democrats that voted no were:
Mark Bingaman
Mary Landrieu
Mark Pryor
Nelson Rockefeller
Jim Tester
If these senators join with the no-cloture caucus, that gives us a possible twenty-eight senators against. That leaves thirteen left to flip. To beat this again, we need at least forty-one votes. If Harry Reid, Trent Lott, John McCain, and Ted Kennedy do not get sixty votes, the bill will die again.
I know it is futile to start counting votes, but on the heels of the news that Thomas presented -- that cracks are starting to form amongst the bill's supporters on our side -- it makes sense to have an idea of what sort of uphill battle we are going to go through. The ideal strategy is to target the senators facing reelection first, and remind them that a "yes" vote for cloture will not be good for their campaigns. Then go after the others that seem to be bending. Start with Mitch McConnell, and go down the list of those in the Kate O'Beirne piece. Then go to the rest of them.
Whether these people are Republican or Democrat matters not. This issue has crossed the spectrum; the ideological divide on this issue is not there. Both sides are raising Cain over this. Do not sit on the sidelines. Call.
Marcie
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 8:53 PM
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