Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

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Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Live-blogging primary returns

Yes, I'll be keeping and eye on the primary returns for as long as I possibly can tonight. Hugh Hewitt will be on the air until 10 PM updating and offering analysis of the primary returns. I'll keep updating them as they become available. For those unaware of the states going today, here is a list, by time zone, starting on the East Coast. Polls close at 7 PM, and Arizona (where we are) should start seeing returns by 5:30 PM. (All times listed below are AZ. Time.)

Massachusetts (Called for Romney -- 40 delegates)
Connecticut (Called for McCain -- 27 delegates)
New York
New Jersey (Called for McCain -- 52 delegates)
Delaware (Called for McCain -- 18 delegates)
West Virginia (Done -- 18 delegates awarded to Huckabee)

Tennessee (most of it)
Arkansas (Called for Huckabee -- 31 delegates)
Illinois (Called for McCain -- 57 delegates)
North Dakota (most of it)
Kansas (most of it)

New Mexico
Idaho (most of it



Here we go ...

4:18 PM -- Though announced much earlier today (about an hour or two ago), the Huckster takes West Virginia, in what many primary watchers are accusing both the Huckabee and McCain camps of a backroom deal to deny Romney the win.

4:34 PM -- Early exits from AZ are saying McCain 44% and Romney 39%. (We'd love to see McCain lose his home state); Georgia -- Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent; CA -- McCain 40%, Romney 36%; Missouri -- Romney 34%, McCain 32%; NY -- McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent; NJ -- McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent; Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent; Utah is a no-brainer with Romney trouncing McCain 91% to 5% (someone call this one altready, please); Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35; Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent; Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23; Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19; Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27; Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18; Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

These are only early EXIT polls, not final results. If you haven't voted and in your in one of those states (Republican and Democrats only; no Indies, no Greenies, no Libertarians) then get out and vote. This is an important vote. Don't throw it away. If you do, and you don't like the choices in the end, you have no one to blame but yourselves.

5:10 PM -- First results should be coming any moment now, but nothing has really changed. I'd like to add some thoughts regarding the exit polls. If the numbers hold out, then this race is destined to run into the spring. We might even head for a brokered convention, which we (Marcie and I) still think favors Mitt Romney more than McCain. The more that McCain endures from conservative pundits and bloggers, the weaker he gets. His record doesn't favor him, and a drawn out primary means more time for people to dig into his record, and this is evident in the exit numbers. (Folks, he's from our state, and should be trouncing Romney by a country mile. He's not, and THAT should speak volumes to voters around the country.)

5:17 PM -- Geraghty the Indispensible says that CA is "a barnburner" with McCain at 40 and Romney at 38 in the early exit polls.

5:30 PM -- With approximately 1% reporting in Georgia, we have McCain at 38, Huckabee at 28, and Romney at 26. (Courtesy of Politico.

5:34 PM -- Correction, McCain - 35, Romney - 31, Huck - 27 in GA.

5:42 PM -- Montana numbers -- 5% reporting and Romney - 36, McCain - 29, Paul - 22, Huckabee - 11.

5:54 PM -- New Georgia numbers --- McCain - 36, Huckabee - 33, Romney - 25.

5:57 PM -- Alabama numbers --- McCain - 50, Romney - 25.

6:00 PM -- More new Georgia numbers --- McCain & Huckabee neck and neck at 35, Romney at 25.

6:04 PM --- More exit polls --- Arizona: McCain 36 percent, Romney 36 percent; California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 35 percent; Missouri: McCain 33 percent, Romney 30 percent; Tennessee: Huckabee 33 percent, McCain 30, Romney 27 percent; Illinois: McCain 46, Romney 30.

6:06 PM --- More Georgia --- Huckabee now at 36, McCain at 34, Romney at 24.

6:26 PM --- More Alabama numbers, and what a shift. Huckabee - 39, McCain - 35, Romney - 13; NJ -- McCain - 40, Romney - 18 (called for McCain); OK -- McCain - 40, Huckabee - 31, Romney - 18; TN -- McCain - 33, Huckabee - 26, Romney - 15; MA -- Romney - 48, McCain - 45 (called for Romney); CT -- McCain - 50, Romney - 30 (called for McCain); MO -- Huckabee - 33, McCain - 27, Romney - 21.

6:49 PM --- Arkansas goes to Huckabee, 56, 22 (McCain) and 15 (Romney); DE -- McCain - 40, Romney - 32 (called for McCain); MO -- McCain - 33, Huckabee - 29, Romney 23; OK -- McCain - 38, Huckabee - 31, Romney -21; TN -- McCain - 34, Huckabee - 24, Romney - 23; MT -- McCain - 32, Romney - 30, Paul - 18.

7:15 PM --- LAST UPDATE for me (my fingers are driving me nuts) AL -- Huckabee - 39, McCain - 38, Romney - 17; MO -- McCain - 33, Huckabee - 29, Romney - 23; OK -- McCain - 38, Huckabee - 31, Romney - 21; TN -- McCain - 34, Huckabee - 24, Romney - 23; MT -- McCain - 32, Romney - 30, Paul - 18.

My final thoughts on the early coverage of the primaries tonight .... This is now a three-way race. Huckabee is ripping through the south, making McCain look foolish. Romney is still showing strong, but he's lacking the delegates. McCain seems to be surging, but his wins are slim, for the most part. In Arizona, the exits still show McCain and Romney as dead even, which is embarrassing for John McCain. (He is our senator, and one would expect better from him. Maybe the close race might make him wake up. But, then again, this is thick-headed John McCain.)

This race is formally reset. There is no "front-runner." this race is going to drag out through the spring. I was on Hugh's show tonight, and I maintain what I said then. This is looking like a race that will end up in a brokered convention. If The Huckster's desire to stay in the race will carry him through the south, and he takes it all, McCain (if he's the nominee) may have no choice but to take on Huckabee as a veep. If this goes onto a brokered convention, this does favor Romney a great deal as many delegates may end up reconsidering the way their states went. We won't know that until the convention is carried out.

For sure, this night isn't over yet. Tomorrow, I'll look at what happened to see where we go from here. But I'm done for now. My hands are really bugging me, and I'm having a sudden urge to have a drink. (No, I don't drink anymore, but the urge is welling up inside.) You all have a good night.

Publius II


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excellent job. Well done. Ty. I wonder how many of those delegates are bound and on how many ballots at the convention. Rawriter

February 6, 2008 at 2:02 AM  

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