Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

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Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Obama has a stash of SuperDs?

The Democrat superdelegates (SuperDs, for short) have been a point of contention between Hillary and Obama this election cycle because neither one will have enough pledged delegates to get the nomination. Because of this glaring fact, the SuperDs will have to solve this fight. But it looks like he's pounding on doors in DC to locate the SuperDs he'll need according to MSNBC: (HT to Allah at Hot Air)

As NBC’s Tim Russert reported on Nightly News last night, the Obama campaign will claim a majority of all delegates -- whether it’s 2,026, 2,210, or a number in between -- next Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. According to our sources, Obama's been making calls on the Hill this week (the place where more undeclared superdelegates live than any other in the country) in an attempt to gather the number he needs, probably around 45 supers in order to declare Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The campaign is hoarding commitments from undeclared superdelegates to hit these magic numbers once the nominating contests come to a close on June 3. The actual choreography, however, hasn't been agreed to yet; it depends on what happens at Saturday’s DNC meeting. Here’s one scenario: Obama announces enough supers on Monday June 2 to bring him within 10 delegates of the new magic number. Then on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close in Montana, Obama thanks that state for putting him over the top as the small state is one the Obama camp is hoping to put in play for the fall. Sure, it's three electoral votes but every EV may matter if he's got to make up for not winning Florida and (maybe) Ohio.

Of course, a lot of this depends on what happens on Saturday, which the DNC is doing it's level best to settle the problems of the primaries. From MSNBC:

Speaking of Saturday's DNC meeting… A packet sent around to members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has some neutral opinions about the various challenges. One thing folks ought to not miss is the fact that the DNC rules had called for an automatic 50% delegate cut for states that violate the window. The Rules committee went beyond that -- which was within its rights -- and took away ALL of the delegates. Doesn't this provide the blueprint for what's likely to happen on Saturday -- a reinstatement of 50% of the delegates in both states? In fact, if we're interpreting this right, and if the Rules committee follows the letter of the law on this issue, they can't reinstate 100% of the delegates because of the initial violation. For those following the FL/MI fight closely, realize that a Florida compromise seems to be fairly easy to come to; frameworks are being developed as you read. But Michigan is the real riddle. The biggest impediment there are those “uncommitted” delegates; If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama. Of course, as multiple members of the Rules committee told NBC News, there's such a thing as "political will," which could trump the DNC charter. Oh, the joys of what we'll be watching on Saturday.

There is speculation that if the Rules Committee goes with the 50% rule, and awards the delegates -- majority to Hillary/minority to Obama -- that she is still going to the convention. I know a lot of people think we're nuts for arguing for Hillary to be the nominee, but let's consider an important fact here: Obama hasn't taken the big states. He lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Indiana, West Virginia, Florida, California, and New York. She won them. Think about that for a moment -- Ohio specifically. Granted thanks to Republican cross-overs she won it, but he lost it on the heels of a few missteps by the Obama campaign. The most notable ones were the pledge of Austan Goolsbee to the Canadian press that Obama's anti-NAFTA comments were merely rhetoric, and the infamous "3 a.m. phone call" ads showing Obama to be less that competent in handling crises in the middle of the night. No president in the last forty-eight years has won the presidency without taking Ohio. (The last president to win without taking Ohio was John F. Kennedy.) If Obama can't take Ohio, he probably won't win the presidency, and if he didn't take it in the primaries, he probably won't take it in the general.

So, what's Hillary's argument? She can win in the Midwest. She can win in the South. She would be a more formidable opponent against John McCain. In short, it'd be a knife fight between the two of them. Additionally, she has a better chance of flipping "purple" states to blue, and weak red states to blue. In other words, she'll put more states in play, forcing McCain to campaign harder in those states, which means he'll spend money he really can't afford to spend. She has the money. Also, her two key demographics int he primaries -- working class white voters and women -- will be locked up by her.

Obama supporters claim if he loses the nomination, they won't vote for Hillary. There goes the black vote, which has been turning out in droves for him. He's been pulling 90%+ of black voters int he primaries, so she'd lose a good majority of a consistent Democrat demographic. But they won't go out and vote for McCain. The last poll conducted o that question shows that only 19% of his voters would go for McCain if he were denied the nomination. Hillary supporters would turn out in greater numbers for McCain. That poll was done at the end of March by Gallup.

We believe that the Democrats will nominate Obama, and Florida and Michigan will have only 50% of their delegates seated. (Regardless of the Rules Committee and Howling Mad Howie Dean, they have to be there on the off-chance the nominating process goes to a second ballot.) Hillary can continue onto the convention in Denver, but it won't do her any good. She is going to lose the nomination, and the Democrats are going to pin their hopes on a lightweight rookie who is prone to mistakes, missteps, and gaffes. His stash of SuperDs are going to be the straw that breaks Hillary's political back, and her only hope is to work on a chance for 2012.

Publius II


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