Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

John McCain Makes Headway In The Polls

We do not put a lot of stock in polls, really. They are nice for seeing how the presidential race is shaping up, but in the end the only poll that matters is the one at the end of election day. Today Reuters reveals a poll that is sure to have Senator Obama grabbing the bottle of Excedrin:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

The reversal follows a month of attacks by McCain, who has questioned Obama's experience, criticized his opposition to most new offshore oil drilling and mocked his overseas trip.

The poll was taken Thursday through Saturday as Obama wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Hawaii that ceded the political spotlight to McCain, who seized on Russia's invasion of Georgia to emphasize his foreign policy views. ...

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

McCain has been on the offensive against Obama during the last month over energy concerns, with polls showing strong majorities supporting his call for an expansion of offshore oil drilling as gasoline prices hover near $4 a gallon. ...

Obama's support among Democrats fell 9 percentage points this month to 74 percent, while McCain has the backing of 81 percent of Republicans. Support for Obama, an Illinois senator, fell 12 percentage points among liberals, with 10 percent of liberals still undecided compared to 9 percent of conservatives.

"Conservatives were supposed to be the bigger problem for McCain," Zogby said. "Obama still has work to do on his base. At this point McCain seems to be doing a better job with his."

The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

"There were no wild swings, there isn't one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board," Zogby said.

Now take the poll with a grain of salt. It is from Zogby, which is not exactly the most reliable polling group out there, but the shift is indeed notable. It is a sure sign that the veneer on senator Obama is tarnished, and that is not good for him. I do not believe we need to remind readers that we warned people that the shoe was about to drop on Senator Obama. His waffling has hurt him with his base. His pandering has hurt him with his base. And it is clear to us that the unity he was hoping to achieve in the wake of the fight in the primaries between him and Senator Clinton is simply not there.

We contend the steady decline in support comes from three important aspects of this election. First, it is clear that many supporters of his are weary of this lengthy process. Second, his constant pandering to moderates, independents, and Republicans has tarnished his image with his hardcore liberal base. Third, his tack to the center has backfired on him because those changes in political stances has raised the ire of his base.

He simply cannot maintain his base, and he cannot crack the magical 50% mark in the polls. Yesterday in an LA Times/Bloomberg poll John McCain is only two points behind Senator Obama, and that goes hand-in-hand with the Pew poll on the 13th that shows the race is in a virtual dead heat. The Reuters/Zogby poll focuses on certain aspects whereas the aforementioned two polls are discussing the race, in general. But the polls show that there is a significant shift in the race, and it is one that the media simply cannot hide. Senator Obama is in trouble, and a lot of it comes from the fact that he is an inexperienced senator with 143 total days under his belt in the Senate. Couple that with the fact that he will not go on the record about anything out of fear that he will have to change his view to pander even more desperately to a base that is not his own.



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