Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Crying in their beer, or just seething?

Imagine our delight this morning when we woke up to read the news today and discovered a significant shift had occurred in the election. It seems that the Republican convention has registered a noticeable bounce:

Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point." ...

McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3. ...

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

This is telling as John McCain has cross the 50% threshold, which up to this point neither candidate had been able to breach. And his lead is considerable given the fact that this poll check registered voters and likely voters. The likely voters are the ones who will carry the day, and he has a commanding ten point lead among them.

The other telling note is how people view the candidates on the economy. Obama blew a 19 point lead, and that is due in no small part to the fact he still believes in raising taxes. (BTW, he seems to have waffled on rescinding the president's tax cuts, but he never said he wouldn't raise taxes.) With this sort of thinking it's no wonder why he slipped on his strongest issue thus far in the election.

The people heard John McCain and Sarah Palin at the convention, and they like what they heard. They seemed to like it a lot more than what Obama and company had to say at their convention a week before. The bounce is also significant because the RNC was truncated due to Hurricane Gustav roaring ashore along the Gulf Coast. And McCain still pulled off a ten point bounce. The Democrats are in deep trouble. they can't get traction on attacking Palin, and they're getting hammered daily for being a part of the status quo; for being a part of what's wrong with DC. They failed to get a cohesive message out there, and with their party still split, it's going to make things much tougher for them in the fall.

If they don't switch up their strategy, and do it soon, they're going to lose badly, and that's not only in the race for the White House, but it could reflect in the congressional races as well.

Publius II


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