Aftermath of New Hampshire
We have learned two important lessons in presidential politics over the last week or so. Number one, don't predict anything. Number two, you can't predict anything. I say that because the only thing we got right on our predictions were Edwards and Richardson coming in third and fourth respectively. (For those REALLY interested in how things broke down The Politico has a handy county-by-county break down available. Roll your mouse over a county, and it'll give you the results.)
So, how did things break last night? On the GOP side, Romney still hasn't taken a state yet, aside from Wyoming, which was a no brainer, and really is about as prescient as Iowa and New Hampshire. (Him and Fred split that state.) The Huckster's still in it, and likely will be up through South Carolina, where he hopes to pick up a second win. McCain finally got on the board, thanks to last night's win, but we doubt it's going to help him much. The Independents didn't break the way he'd hoped, but they did show up for him. Michael Medved said yesterday on Hugh's show that that was interesting. So many people (ourselves included) believed they would turn out for Obama. It seems they read the polls and figured he had it sewn up, so they went back to their old mainstay, Captain Queeg. Rudy had an OK showing, though he did beat the Paul-bat and Fred. Point being this is still anybody's game.
The Democrats, on the other hand, were "shocked" (shocked I tell you) that Hillary pulled it out. The polls had her trailing by as many as ten points before voting started. The tears-turned-appeal should have finished her off as badly as they finished off Ed Muskie, but they obviously didn't. (Hey Hillary, try that in another state; I guess New Hampsherites dig weepy women.) Of course, it also could have been Obama, who didn't exactly close the deal the way he did in Iowa.
Somehow, some way, Edwards is staying in and so is Richardson. I personally think that's a bad idea. Both ought to fade away and let these two have the dogfight Democrats have been itching for. Edwards has no shot at getting the nomination (two third-place finishes don't look good for his campaign right now), and Richardson has a combined total of 6.7% in both contests. (Um, dude, you're not even on the political radar here.) Yeah, I think these guys need to make a serious decision by South Carolina, and that decision should be that they're bowing out.
On the Republican side this race is down to four people, and it pains me to mention the last two. Rudy is still in it as his campaign is waiting on Florida. Some are saying this is a death knell, and he's going to cost himself the nomination. I say wait and see. Mitt's got one win, which was practically assured, and two, strong second-place finishes. He's still in the game without a doubt. Despite the fact that neither of us like them much, the Huckster and McCain are still in this race.
Duncan Hunter hasn't pulled a full percentage point between Iowa and New Hampshire. That presser Monday should have been his swan song, not a whiny rant on the media. Fred, much to the chagrin of any possible FredHeads who might be readers, we think is done. His only hope of staying in is to win South Carolina, and use it as a springboard to Super Duper Tuesday on the fifth of February. We don't see it happening. The Huckster has a commanding lead in the polls right now, and many candidates aren't too hopeful to take it from him.
This leaves us with the Paul-bat. Yes, his percentages aren't bad (9.96% with 11,000+ votes in Iowa; 7.65% with 18,000+ votes in New Hampshire), but they're not good either. Personally, we're surprised he's garnered as much support in those states as he has, and we can say we're impressed. (Don't worry, we haven't gone off the deep end, but let's give credit where it's due, shall we?) But the writing for his campaign is on the wall. His not-so-good showings in the primaries, coupled with The New Republic piece released yesterday revealing more details about him than most of his supporters would like to have seen, means that this guy is a dead duck.
So, we move onto Michigan, where Hillary appears to be the only Democrat on the ballot (the other choice is basically none of the above), and was already seen as winning the state. The ads are already running, and the candidates are there. (Hillary returned to New York today to "rest" and Fred's in South Carolina.) Michigan will be another wait-and-see state, at least for the GOP. If Mitt fails to take Michigan we feel it will hurt him more than losing Iowa or New Hampshire.
Publius II
So, how did things break last night? On the GOP side, Romney still hasn't taken a state yet, aside from Wyoming, which was a no brainer, and really is about as prescient as Iowa and New Hampshire. (Him and Fred split that state.) The Huckster's still in it, and likely will be up through South Carolina, where he hopes to pick up a second win. McCain finally got on the board, thanks to last night's win, but we doubt it's going to help him much. The Independents didn't break the way he'd hoped, but they did show up for him. Michael Medved said yesterday on Hugh's show that that was interesting. So many people (ourselves included) believed they would turn out for Obama. It seems they read the polls and figured he had it sewn up, so they went back to their old mainstay, Captain Queeg. Rudy had an OK showing, though he did beat the Paul-bat and Fred. Point being this is still anybody's game.
The Democrats, on the other hand, were "shocked" (shocked I tell you) that Hillary pulled it out. The polls had her trailing by as many as ten points before voting started. The tears-turned-appeal should have finished her off as badly as they finished off Ed Muskie, but they obviously didn't. (Hey Hillary, try that in another state; I guess New Hampsherites dig weepy women.) Of course, it also could have been Obama, who didn't exactly close the deal the way he did in Iowa.
Somehow, some way, Edwards is staying in and so is Richardson. I personally think that's a bad idea. Both ought to fade away and let these two have the dogfight Democrats have been itching for. Edwards has no shot at getting the nomination (two third-place finishes don't look good for his campaign right now), and Richardson has a combined total of 6.7% in both contests. (Um, dude, you're not even on the political radar here.) Yeah, I think these guys need to make a serious decision by South Carolina, and that decision should be that they're bowing out.
On the Republican side this race is down to four people, and it pains me to mention the last two. Rudy is still in it as his campaign is waiting on Florida. Some are saying this is a death knell, and he's going to cost himself the nomination. I say wait and see. Mitt's got one win, which was practically assured, and two, strong second-place finishes. He's still in the game without a doubt. Despite the fact that neither of us like them much, the Huckster and McCain are still in this race.
Duncan Hunter hasn't pulled a full percentage point between Iowa and New Hampshire. That presser Monday should have been his swan song, not a whiny rant on the media. Fred, much to the chagrin of any possible FredHeads who might be readers, we think is done. His only hope of staying in is to win South Carolina, and use it as a springboard to Super Duper Tuesday on the fifth of February. We don't see it happening. The Huckster has a commanding lead in the polls right now, and many candidates aren't too hopeful to take it from him.
This leaves us with the Paul-bat. Yes, his percentages aren't bad (9.96% with 11,000+ votes in Iowa; 7.65% with 18,000+ votes in New Hampshire), but they're not good either. Personally, we're surprised he's garnered as much support in those states as he has, and we can say we're impressed. (Don't worry, we haven't gone off the deep end, but let's give credit where it's due, shall we?) But the writing for his campaign is on the wall. His not-so-good showings in the primaries, coupled with The New Republic piece released yesterday revealing more details about him than most of his supporters would like to have seen, means that this guy is a dead duck.
So, we move onto Michigan, where Hillary appears to be the only Democrat on the ballot (the other choice is basically none of the above), and was already seen as winning the state. The ads are already running, and the candidates are there. (Hillary returned to New York today to "rest" and Fred's in South Carolina.) Michigan will be another wait-and-see state, at least for the GOP. If Mitt fails to take Michigan we feel it will hurt him more than losing Iowa or New Hampshire.
Publius II
posted by Syd And Vaughn | 4:38 PM
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