Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

This blog is devoted to a variety of topics including politics, current events, legal issues, and we even take the time to have some occasional fun. After all, blogging is about having a little fun, right?

Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Sunday debate -- Reactions and predictions

First off, some brief housekeeping. We thank the readers who e-mailed and appreciated my lovely wife's return to the site. Unfortunately, she is heading back to school now that her Christmas break is over. You all will simply have to get used to the fact that the "friendly neighborhood curmudgeon" is solo again; at least until she finishes this year of school.

I'll admit that I only watched part of the debate on Sunday night. It lacked the fireworks Saturday night's debate had, but the absence of Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter sent a clear message to voters: You're choosing one of five, not one of the Seven Dwarfs.

It wasn't bad, and the Luntz Focus Group from FOX News reflected what we thought --

Romney won, if for nothing else than substance. He stayed on message, and conveyed his ideas better than anyone else.

The Huckster stunk. The focus group agreed that he sounded "slick" and "evasive." I shouldn't need to remind readers that we have highlighted that for the better part of two weeks. (I have been hammering on him longer, but I include Marcie because she is as much a part of this site as I am.) In other words, New Hampshire voters were turned off from him.

In our opinion, neither Fred or Rudy were given much time. What they were given was good. It was steady. But for someone like Fred, steady ain't sexy, and right now his supporters are questioning whether or not he has the enthusiasm to continue this fight. Our opinion is that he's getting his sea legs, but that's not going to help him if he doesn't show voters that he wants this. The folksy attitude isn't going to help show that he wants this.

Rudy's problem doesn't come in what he says. It comes in his strategy. He blew off Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Michigan. He's hoping for a placing in South Carolina, and he's betting the farm on 5 February. If he can sweep, or almost sweep, the states going then, he's still in the running. If not, he's gone. (That will break my heart, but not Marcie's. At this point we are the proverbial house divided; she is for Romney, I'm for Rudy.)

John McCain hurt himself on Saturday, and he toned down his vindictive attitude for Sunday, but I don't think that's going to help him. He was angry and combative on Saturday, and while that might get him far in the general election debates, in the primaries -- especially in New Hampshire -- it doesn't endear you to the base, nor to the Independents you're courting. With him sitting only two points ahead of Romney right now, McCain is in danger of not only losing, but possibly giving us the first Dean Scream of the campaign right now. If he loses, it wouldn't surprise us to see a meltdown in New Hampshire from Mr. Amnesty.

As for the Democrats (we are nothing if not fair) the newest New Hampshire polls have Obama with a commanding lead over Hillary. It's anywhere from 10 to 13 percent over Hillary. The Suffolk/WHDH poll is the only one with Hillary in the lead and it's by a lousy two points. Things don't look good for Ms. Inevitable in New Hampshire. A second loss will bring nothing but hardship to her campaign, and she will only go more negative on Obama. Again, this doesn't endear her to voters there, be they Democrat or Independent.

(For those wondering why I'm putting an emphasis on Independents, they get to vote int he primaries, unlike Iowa. We contend that they'll bolt from McCain, thanks to a p*ss-poor performance in both debates, plus going nasty on Romney on Saturday. the Independents might just bolt to Obama to ensure a Hillary loss. In that case, McCain loses -- clearing the way for a Romney win -- and so does Hillary.)

Tuesday is going to be a long night, but we'll make our predictions right now for New Hampshire. We'll get them out of the way so we're not thinking on a constrained timetable then.

1st -- Romney
2nd -- McCain
3rd --Huckabee
4th -- Thompson

1st -- Obama
2nd -- Clinton
3rd -- Edwards
4th -- Richardson

Again, like our previous predictions (Yes they were wrong; give us a break. Our first time trying to predict Iowa shouldn't be held against us) these are set in stone. If they pan out, Romney has his second victory. So does Obama. And those wins puts the nation one step closer to the immortal Dean Scream from a candidate, be it McCain or Hillary. More importantly it puts us closer to 5 February, and ending this game. We believe that 5 February will be the day when our nominee is set; same as the Democrats. It may surprise us, and then again, it might not. We'll see.

Publius II


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