Hamilton, Madison, and Jay

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Location: Mesa, Arizona, United States

Who are we? We're a married couple who has a passion for politics and current events. That's what this site is about. If you read us, you know what we stand for.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Support for Obama sliding?

HT to Captain Ed

We've been watching the slow slide that Obama's been having over the past month. He had a commanding lead when the primaries finally ended, and it has been squandered by him in subsequent months. It really started happening when Obama decided to take his campaign circus on the road abroad. Voters were significantly turned off by the speech in Berlin and with the haughty attitude in meeting with Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Angela Merkel. Likewise, people weren't pleased to hear that he snubbed the troops at Landstuhl because he couldn't make it a campaign photo-op. Today, Gallup shows that the slide, and the loss of support, is worse than they believed:

Barack Obama has been struggling to maintain his Democratic base thus far in August, and according to weekly averages of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, the problem seems to be with conservative Democrats.

Within the Democratic Party, Obama's losses are primarily evident among the relatively small group that describes its political views as conservative. The 63% of conservative Democrats supporting Obama over McCain in Aug. 18-24 polling is the lowest Obama has earned since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June. At the same time, there have been no similar drops in support for Obama in the preferences of liberal or moderate Democrats.

As a result of this, support for Obama among all Democratic registered voters fell from 81% in early August (Aug. 4-10) to 78% last week (Aug. 18-24). Obama's support from Republicans over this period also dipped from 9% to 7%, while 42% to 43% of independents have consistently supported him.

The 78% of Democrats backing Obama from Aug. 18-24 ties for the lowest seen since early June. The 7% of Republicans for Obama is the lowest to date (since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the Obama-McCain race in March).

Among Republicans, Obama has mainly seen his support eroding among moderate and liberal Republicans, from 19% to 13% during August. Already at 4% to 6% in July and early August, Obama's support from conservative Republicans could not go much lower. ...

Obama's troubles are also evident among married women. Between Aug. 4-10 and Aug. 18-24, the percentage of married women backing Obama fell from 46% to 39%, while support from unmarried women fell from 58% to 55%. At the same time, there has been no decrease in the percentage of married or unmarried men supporting Obama.

Obama held the slight upper hand in the race from early June through mid-August. His failure to maintain that last week -- averaging a tie with McCain at 45% -- can be largely explained by some defection from the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, as well as less crossover support from moderate and liberal Republicans.

Rasmussen also weighs in today with news that they're still deadlocked:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote for the second straight day. When "leaners" are included, though, McCain picked up another point since yesterday and now has a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over Obama, 47% to 46%.

This is the first time since August 9 that McCain has held any advantage over Obama. The candidates have been within two points of each other on every day but two for the past month.

Both polls reflect the weekend and the opening of the DNC in Denver. They also point out two very important things. The botching of the Biden announcement, and the lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden has made sure that there was no bump in the polls for Obama. Also, the convention is entering it's third day tonight, and there is still no bump in the polls for him.

Michelle's speech didn't help him. The Biden pick didn't help him. Thus far the convention, as a whole, isn't helping him. And this effete, snobbish attitude that will be on display at Invesco field with the "Greek temple" motif isn't going to fly with voters either. In fact, that idea was as bad as his "original seal" idea, the "salute" idea, and it speaks to the cult of personality Obama has bought into.

Publius II


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